Market Monitor 18/11/25
Studying the market environment at a glance
Dear folks, hope everyone is doing well; it had been a long pause from my previous newsletter as I had my exams going on; now I will be regular.
The market had been pretty sluggish consolidating around the same line in sideways direction. Though, the midcap index and Nifty is near all time highs; the overall breadth is deteriorating badly with huge volatility near the breakout zone. None of the breakouts are sustaining and giving follow through with huge volumes; rather are falling miserably.
Folks; don’t get fooled by the index; as the midcap index and nifty is FINANCIAL HEAVY; as multiple banks have weightage in this index.
As I mentioned earlier; PSU Banks are leading the rally of this market with some small banks such as CUB, DCB, IDFC following.
One looking for fresh entry in this sector; needs to keep the valuations in mind and must follow strict SL. Adding to that; all the PSU Bank leaders such as SBI, Canara, Indian Bank, Bank of India are beautifully following their 10 EMA; one can observe the chart. Even on a bad market day; such stocks are just kissing their 10 EMA and then reversing to the upside; one can use 10 EMA to pyramid in this counter; however this is also the character of the leading stocks; you will observe multiple stocks following their 10 EMA beautifully in the bull market.
The market breadth is very very bad and each day the breadth is deteriorating; and there is huge pain in the broader market; we can see a huge divergence between the index and the broader market breadth.
The % of stocks above 200EMA is just 43.3%; and the same for 50EMA is 37.3% and going onto lower timeframe; the % of stocks above 21 EMA is just 34%; and this showcases the weakness in the market.
We are strongly in a no trading zone; the market is dead and isn’t showing move to either of the sides. I hope we don’t have a hard crack.
This phase is extremely bad. One may concentrate themselves in Financial sector for the time being for quick bucks. Remember; everyone was cursing the Banking sector in last 2-3 years because of no movement in the stocks despite of huge Bull market; Banking sector seems to be the new leader of this rally.
Remember; every bull market create new sets of leaders and those leaders are so obvious that everyone misses them!
We also had a very hard crack in the US markets last week; I except a base formation here.
Guys; sit tight on cash; the opportunity will come soon. This market is flushing down the noob retail who invest on tips and gossips; once the stupid investors are flushed and throw in their towel a new bull market will emerge. As the west wind causes destruction before the new generation of the life the same way market makes the weak hands throw off the towel.
If its winter; the spring isn’t far away. 🍂🍃