Market Monitor 15/11/25
#Newsletter3
Dear Folks,
Hope everyone had a perfect week.
Markets had been kinda dicey this week; moving around the range with the breadth constantly deteriorating and the moves are failing badly.
I am constantly saying; don’t get fooled by the index; though it is at all time high; market is suffering extreme choppiness; we had some move from the paints sector and and a few finance stocks where there is acquisition speculation going on.
Though the index is sideways; the Net New Highs are decreasing constantly with breadth fully sideways. This is very very tough money making environment and it is better to wait on the sidelines and not deploying any fresh capital.
It is extremely hard to sit on cash; but if you wish to be in this business for long; you need to be extremely disciplined and all your decisions should be governed by data points rather than emotions.
Being in this domain for long; trading will tear your emotions apart into a thousand pieces until your heart and soul becomes rock hard. Until you don’t develop discipline in life; you can’t make money.
We did have a little recovery on last 2 days; however most of them were bottom bounces and pivot making (the ones those broke earlier)
Trade the largest when you are doing the best and trade the smallest when you are trading the worst; this is what I have learnt surviving this market environment.
And guys this is the time when many amateurs are throwing in the towel and leaving the battlefield. This is the natural cycle of capital returns.
Bull Markets create stupid investors; Stupid investors create bear market;
Bear Markets create smart investors; Smart investors create bull markets.
and the cycle repeats……
This earnings season was better than the last; and I would request you all to focus on the companies reporting earning surprises. Always remember; price is the slave of earnings; EARNINGS IS THE MOTHER MILK FOR MOMENTUM INVESTING.
Gold and Silver are consolidating near 10 EMAs; I have marked the resistance lines; and both the metals have given pretty decent returns for this year; I expect a base formation in near term.
Even the mother market had a hard crackdown to 50 EMA; US markets had pretty decent run this year where many data centre related stocks went parabolic.
However; here also the breadth has fallen below 50; a beautiful base formation is expected here as a cooldown is needed post the rally.
Dear folks;
sometimes we keep on finding the small companies in a particular domain thinking they would be delivering far better returns than the mammoth leader; however that doesn’t stand true in some cases; a few companies dominate a particular field and it is extremely hard to displace their moat. Take the example of Kavach; HBL emerged as a leader in spite of being the largest player in the industry; a few folks kept on tracking Kernex. In the same way; Muthoot delivered blockbuster result establishing its leadership again in the gold lending industry.
ELEPHANTS CAN DANCE; and sometimes its much better to bet on the leaders rather than the turnarounds and the companies making stories about future dominance.
Also there is one interesting observation I had this this market condition; all the leaders and the strong RS stocks are trailing their 10 EMA; if you are carefully observing the charts- Canara Bank, TD Power, Vintage Coffee etc etc;
As said the market wizard David Ryan; in choppy markets; its better to buy at the pullbacks rather than buying at the breakouts; guys again a small reminder; breakouts aren’t sustaining for long in this conditions; we aren’t getting a beautiful follow throughs post BOs; only a few breakouts are sustaining; please don’t burn your hands trading random breakouts; the winning probability in not in your favour; there will always be 1 or 2 companies running and making new highs; but instead of looking those focus on broader markets; till the time you’ll catch a proper winner; you would have accumulated beautiful piles of losses as your SL will be hit in attempting multiple setups.
This phase won’t last long and we will have again a great opportunity for making shit load of money. Be patient; enjoy your time with family and friends; spend time learning and researching and most importantly be off screen during live market hours. Sometimes; its better to leave initial 5% move on the table rather than catching everything; let the noobs trade in this environment.
Signing off.
Also, I will be covering 1 company fundamentally every week. Stay tuned for it.