Market Monitor 11/11/25

Dear folks,

This is day 2 of writing my newsletter.

The perception of mine from the market haven’t changed even a bit. This is strictly not the market to trade in by the perspective of swing trader; and an investor on the basis of short term gains. There is very less liquidity flowing in the markets and the same money is rotating from one counter to another. The IPO market has been kinda hot lately and is absorbing majority of the flows of the Indian Markets as you can observe large companies doing IPOs left, right and centre.

In the earlier phases; small companies used to do IPOs who were hungry for capital needed for growth; however the IPOs in the near term are majorly happening for giving exits to the PE firms; adding to that well established companies are coming up with their offerings.

We are still well below the established resistance zone on the index level and market is in pure sideways direction. However having a broad picture of the market just a few sectors are resilient as I mentioned in my earlier letter- PSU Banks and Small Pvt Banks.

Also the breadth is in continous decline; along with the Net New Highs hitting fresh lows. Im mentioning again this is not the right time to trade or coming up with fresh capital in the markets.

Even the options data shows that the puts have overweighted the calls.

FAILURE OF BREAKOUTS IN STRONG STOCKS

Guys; this is one of the single most powerful metric to understand the health of the market what we call- sustainance of the Breakout (is the breakout giving follow throughs on Day 2 and 3 or not); as it shows the institutional interest in the markets.

When institutions buy they keep on buying regardless of the price for a short period of time and that pushes the stock higher post the breakout level and this is what we observe in thebull markets.

• The market environment lately is characterised by the failure of breakouts.

• The volatility near the pivot (small tight consolidation near the breakout line) has increased multifolds and has been chopping the buyers in and out of their positions.

• Even the companies delivering blockbuster result arent able to are sustained move on the upside.

  

  Today Syrma announced blockbuster results but the BO was sustainable; even the intraday traders dont have the guts to hold their position for the other day;

  there is very tight liquidity environment in the market.

Even my trader friends who play EP trade (trading on the earnings); they are taking the money off the table post 2-3% move; shows the liquidity crunch that is available.

Please observe the breakout failures that is happening in the markets.

The probability to make money in the markets is highly negligible and its better to sit out.

Gold and Silver had a pretty good upward movement yesterday; I believe it to consolidate here near the line before giving any one way rally. The precious metals have had already done pretty good run lately and I believe it will consolidate beneath the BO line to have proper right hand side development and the ample supply absorption to happen before going on either side.

If one has missed the yesterday’s buy point can hold their horses and not buy in rush.

LIQUIDITY FLOW

I believe that the liquidity is flowing in metal sector and in PSU Banks right now.

The Metal index and PSU bank index both reversed from their key EMAs today. One can look at bottom up opportunity in this sector.

Thanks a lot guys for reading till here.